04 Dec Pablo García, the CNEP President, warns that “the impact of climate change is tangible in the economy.”
During his keynote lecture, “Climate Change, Productivity and Migration: Global and Local Challenges,” delivered at the 15th Annual Meeting of the Chilean Society for Regional Studies (SOCHER), the President of the National Commission for Evaluation and Productivity (CNEP), Pablo García, presented recent evidence showing the growing impacts of climate change on both human mobility and economic activity.
At the global level, he explained that the sustained increase in temperatures since 1990 is associated with a rise of more than 90 million people in the worldwide migrant stock, with particularly intense effects in tropical regions.
Regarding Chile, high levels of thermal exposure, with surface temperatures reaching 70 °C in some areas of the country in 2023, were presented: “The impact of climate change is tangible in the economy,” he warned, noting that droughts, heat waves, and productivity losses are already affecting GDP. Drawing on the study Global Warming in Chile: Local and Sectoral Effects (Mariano Jiménez Hoffmann), he explained that increases in maximum temperatures significantly reduce productivity in sectors such as Agriculture — with drops close to −3 — and Construction, which approaches −4. These results, he emphasized, “confirm the country’s high vulnerability due to its geography and productive structure, and reinforce the need to quantify the effects of climate change at the regional and sectoral scale.”
Thursday, December 4, 2025. During the recent event in Antofagasta, which brought together researchers, academics, and specialists from across the country, CNEP President Pablo García focused his presentation on how climate change is simultaneously reshaping global migration, productivity, and the institutional capacities required to confront these challenges.
Addressing the effects of global warming on human mobility, he explained that the sustained increase in average temperature during the maize-growing season since 1990 has paralleled a sharp rise in the worldwide stock of emigrants between 1990 and 2020. Citing the study Through Drought and Flood: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Migration by E. Albagli, P. García Silva, G. García-Trujillo, and M. A. Yung, he noted that over those three decades, cumulative emigration increased by more than 90 million people.
The analysis shows that this growth was not uniform: the most significant increases occurred in tropical regions, with around 45 million new emigrants, and in arid areas, with approximately 18 million. It also highlights that the relationship between average temperature and emigration follows a global “U-shaped” curve: the lowest levels of out-migration are observed when average temperatures approach 25 °C.
García further explained that the evidence confirms that climate pressure affects regions unevenly. For example, an increase of up to 5 °C in average temperature is associated with a nearly 90% rise (0.9) in emigration in tropical regions. At the same time, the same variation corresponds to an almost complete decrease (−1.0) in the cold areas.
When analyzing the effects of global warming in Chile, García cited the study “Global Warming in Chile: Local and Sectoral Effects” (Mariano Jiménez Hoffmann), which identifies the country as “highly vulnerable due to its geography and productive structure.” The evidence presented shows that droughts, heat waves, and other extreme events are already affecting economic performance, and that these impacts are unevenly distributed across sectors. “The impact of climate change is tangible in the economy,” he reiterated, noting that productivity losses from extreme heat are already influencing GDP. According to the study’s estimates, increases in maximum temperature significantly reduce productivity in activities such as Agriculture — showing declines of −3 when temperatures reach 80 °C — and Construction, which approaches −4. These results, he said, confirm the country’s high vulnerability and underscore the need to measure the effects of climate change at regional and sectoral levels.
Agency for the Quality of Public Policies and Productivity
García argued that the findings presented reinforce the need for an institutional framework capable of anticipating impacts and improving the quality of public decision-making in a context of rising risks. In this regard, he highlighted the bill currently under discussion in Congress that establishes the Agency for the Quality of Public Policies and Productivity, which brings together ex ante and ex post evaluation and regulatory recommendations under a single institution.
“Consolidating these functions will make it possible to work with consistent criteria, comparable evidence, and a systemic perspective to address challenges such as climate adaptation, productive resilience, and economic risk management,” he said.
Finally, while discussing Chile’s productivity trajectory between 1991 and 2025 — which shows significant fluctuations, including declines in recent periods — he stressed that this “also illustrates the need for sound public policies, strong institutions, and advanced analytical tools capable of anticipating impacts, coordinating responses, and guiding strategic decisions in an increasingly dynamic and demanding global environment,” he concluded.